Deja Vu Diplomacy: Why Donald Trump's Iran plans feels like George W Bush's worst mistake

Twenty-two years after George W. Bush declared “Mission Accomplished” aboard an aircraft carrier — only to plunge the Middle East into chaos — America once again stands at the edge of another potential war.

This time the target is Iran, not Iraq. The president is Trump, not Bush. And the weapon of choice? A 30,000-pound bunker buster, aimed at the Fordo nuclear facility buried under a mountain.But strip away the names and locations, and the contours of this crisis feel hauntingly familiar. A president under pressure. Intelligence disputes. Neoconservative cheerleaders. Talk of surgical strikes. A public weary of endless wars but whipped up with fear of nuclear apocalypse. Sound familiar?Welcome to 2025. Or is it just 2003 in camouflage?

The Cakewalk Complex: We’ve Seen This Film Before

In 2003, the Bush administration sold the Iraq war as a cakewalk.

U.S. troops would be welcomed as liberators. Democracy would bloom in the desert. Saddam would fall, and the region would stabilise. The reality? A prolonged occupation, thousands of American and hundreds of thousands of Iraqi deaths, and the birth of ISIS.Now, in 2025, Trumpworld believes a single strike on Fordo — Iran’s heavily fortified nuclear site — will miraculously solve the nuclear crisis. Supporters like John Bolton urge, “Bomb Fordo and be done with it,” echoing the casual fatalism of Iraq’s early architects.

Tulsi Gabbard, now Director of National Intelligence, has said Iran isn't actively building a bomb. Trump’s response? “I don’t care what she said.

”This is not strategy. It’s muscle memory.

The Intelligence Split: Then Powell, Now Tulsi

Back in 2003, it was Colin Powell’s UN presentation that helped sell the war, despite flawed intelligence. Dissenters were silenced, doubts buried under patriotic fervour. Fast forward to 2025: Tulsi Gabbard publicly contradicts the President on Iran’s nuclear intentions.

Her conclusion? Iran isn’t close. Trump’s retort? He doesn’t care. The difference now is the theatre: Powell had the UN. Gabbard had a March interview.

But the implications are the same — a president brushing aside evidence in favour of “instinct.”

The Neocon Comeback Tour

They never really left.Figures like Bill Kristol and John Bolton — architects of the Iraq misadventure — are back, this time playing cheerleaders for bombing Iran. “You’ve got to go to war with the president you have,” Kristol now says, in a grim twist on Donald Rumsfeld’s infamous quip.Trump may be no neocon, but as Vali Nasr, the Iranian-American scholar, puts it: “We bought all the happy talk about Iraq. Every single assumption proved wrong.” And yet, some in Washington appear ready to repurchase the same delusion — with interest.

The Endgame? What Endgame?

What happens after Fordo is bombed?That question — ignored in Iraq — haunts military minds today. Admiral William Fallon, who once oversaw U.S. operations in the Middle East, is blunt: “What’s the plan? What’s the strategy? What’s the desired end state?”General David Petraeus believes Trump should deliver a take-it-or-die ultimatum to Iran: dismantle or face annihilation.

But as even Petraeus admits, that “legitimises” a strike only if diplomacy fails. And if Iran retaliates — as it almost certainly would — America could be dragged into a conflict across Iraq, Syria, the Red Sea, and possibly Lebanon.Iran is no Iraq. It’s bigger, more unified, and has battle-tested proxies across the region.

Trump’s War Cabinet: Conflicted, Confusing, and Combustible

Unlike Bush’s inner circle, which spoke with a (dangerously) unified voice, Trump’s national security orbit is chaotic.

Gabbard contradicts Trump. Bolton publicly criticises him. Intelligence leaks are everywhere. Even Trump’s closest advisors aren’t sure what he’ll do. “He talks to a lot of people,” Bolton recently said. “He’s looking for somebody who will say the magic words.” A chilling thought when nuclear diplomacy is at stake.

From Tehran to Tel Aviv: A Wider War Looms

Supporters argue the strike would help defend Israel — especially after Iranian missiles recently struck an Israeli hospital in Beersheba.

Those of a more theological bend even argue it's God's work to defend Israel. But others fear it could backfire. Pro-Iran militias could attack U.S. bases in Iraq and Syria. The Houthis could shut the Red Sea. Hezbollah could open a front in Lebanon.And then there’s Iran itself: a nation of 90 million with a fiercely nationalist army, not the hollowed-out Ba’athist forces of Saddam’s Iraq.The Legacy Trap: Trump’s “Mission Accomplished” Moment?There’s no banner yet.

No aircraft carrier photo-op. But the stage is eerily similar. A populist president driven by bravado. An uncertain threat inflated for political effect. And a restless political class with old hawks circling, hoping for one more war to get right.In 2003, the United States invaded Iraq on a lie. In 2025, it might bomb Iran on a hunch.Trump may want to prove he’s stronger than Obama, smarter than Bush, and more decisive than Biden. But if the Fordo strike goes wrong — if it triggers a wider conflict — then his name, like Bush’s, could be etched into the long ledger of American overreach.As Nasr grimly warned, “You don’t know where it’s going to stop.”The specter of Iraq is not behind us. It’s just wearing a new flag.