Arab countries hope for big US business amid war in Gaza

US President Donald Trump already has a gift ready for his three host countries — Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates — ahead of the first foreign trip of his second presidency, set to begin on Tuesday.According to US officials, Trump has pledged to start referring to the Persian Gulf — the body of water that separates the Gulf states and Saudi Arabia from the country its official name is associated with, Iran — as the Arabian Gulf or the Gulf of Arabia.Although Trump doesn't have the authority to change the name officially, the symbolism is significant. Arab nations have long been pushing for a change of name, while Iran has highlighted its own historic ties to the Gulf.

Trump also promised a "very, very big announcement" during his Middle East trip. "It'll be one of the most important announcements that have been made in many years about a certain subject, very important subject," Trump said, somewhat cryptically.

Arab hopes and concerns:

But what does Trump want to achieve? "Each of the Gulf destinations, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and UAE, hold a set of policy priorities for US President Trump," said Burcu Ozcelik, senior research fellow for Middle East security at the London-based think tank Royal United Services Institute (RUSI).

"Riyadh is in need of foreign direct investment to meet its Vision 2030 reform targets and does not want to be frozen out of the opportunities that the UAE locked in by joining the Abraham Accords [US-brokered diplomatic normalization agreements between Israel and a set of Arab countries]," Ozcelik told DW.Before the diplomacy in the region was derailed by the Hamas terror attack on Israel on October 7, 2023 and the resulting war in Gaza, Israel and Saudi Arabia were close to establishing diplomatic ties.

The US-brokered deal between Jerusalem and Riyadh was almost a trilateral agreement, as the US would have granted security guarantees, a quasi-NATO light for Saudi Arabia, and a Saudi civil nuclear program.However, a deal between Saudi Arabia and Israel is at the moment nowhere near possible, as "the Kingdom cannot back down from its 'red line', namely a credible path to Palestinian statehood," Ozcelik added.According to diplomatic sources in Washington, Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan insisted during his visit to the White House in April that Israel be kept off the agenda during Trump's visit."The Saudi side is prioritizing business to steer clear of an uncomfortable situation," Emily Tasinato, Gulf researcher and fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), told DW.At the same time, there are "indications that Riyadh and the Trump administration are moving forward with other aspects of the mega deal, independent of the normalization process between Saudi Arabia and Israel," she said."One aspect involves the Saudi civil nuclear program, where Trump seems now ready to discuss cooperation without requiring the Kingdom to establish diplomatic ties with Israel," Tasinato said, adding that "another pertains to defense, even though not in the format of a binding defense treaty, as it is something that does not necessitate a deal with Israel."Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa Program at the London-based think tank Chatham House, also thinks that the conflict between Israel and Gaza will be sidelined during Trump's upcoming trip."Arab countries expect Trump's visit will promote greater economic engagement, while the visit will also focus on promoting regional security cooperation with a GCC meeting [Gulf Cooperation Council, an alliance of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait and Oman]," she told DW.But Vakil also believes "that meeting will serve as a cover for no real progress on Gaza," she said.Despite being in the region, Trump has not scheduled a meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Focus on big business:

"I view business as the key element for assessing stakes during Trump's Gulf tour," ECFR's Tasinato said."Several executives from US defense firms are expected to join Trump on his trip to the kingdom," she said, adding that "Riyadh, Doha, and Abu Dhabi have all pledged significant US investments before Trump's visit.""The Saudi leadership is pursuing investments and partnerships with American firms and has offered $600 billion [€533 billion] in trade and investment over four years," she said."The same is true for the UAE, which plans to invest $1.4 trillion in the US in the next decade, with a focus on artificial intelligence infrastructures and semiconductors," Tasinato added.Several US deals on selling aircrafts and missiles to GCC countries have also been announced. "The Saudi-US Investment Forum [taking place in Riyadh during Trump's visit] must be viewed against this backdrop, as Riyadh seeks to expand its technology sector through opportunities in data centers, cloud computing and artificial intelligence, among others," Tasinato said.

What could the 'very big announcement' be?

Analysts believe Trump's mysterious "big announcement" could either have something to do with the Hamas hostages still held in Gaza, a potential US-Iran nuclear deal, or the Iran-backed Houthi militia in Yemen."For Trump, it would be a major moral and diplomatic victory if a hostage release deal could be agreed with Hamas either before or during his visit," RUSI's Ozcelik said.Tasinato, however, thinks it is more likely that the announcement will either refer to the US-Iranian nuclear deal or to Yemen's Houthis, who just agreed to an Oman-brokered ceasefire with the US that halts their attacks on shipping in the Red Sea, but not on Israel.Several sources have said that Iran had a supportive role in the ceasefire negotiations with the Houthis. This could be an indication that Iran is showing willingness to sign a nuclear deal with the US which would likely lead to some relief of economic sanctions on Iran and stave off the possibility of an Israeli military strike on the country."There is a growing alignment between Saudi Arabia and the US regarding the inclusion of the Yemeni dossier in the nuclear talks between Tehran and Washington, as part of a broader de-escalation process in the region," Tasinato said.Either way, it is safe to say that Trump's surprise announcement will also serve US business interests. "President Trump recognizes the trade and investment opportunities in the Gulf, and wants to be able to 'tap out' of the Middle East as the US pivots toward China, which is a longstanding posture," Burcu Ozcelik said."Stronger ties with Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE, states that are not aligned with each other on all fronts but collectively aspire to be heavyweights in the region, mean that the US can entrust regional actors with securing the region," she added.